XRP has tested the $1.50 zone twice before in the past three months. The March 17 rally hit $1.60 on the SEC/CFTC commodity classification before the Fed rate hold pushed the price back to $1.40. April’s attempt tapped $1.51 before XRP retraced 54% of the weekly move.
XRP needs to close above $1.46 on the weekly chart to confirm the breakout. Intraday wicks above $1.50 don’t count.
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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is testing $1.50 again. The token climbed 7.5% over the past week and 5.4% in the last 24 hours, putting it back at the $1.45 resistance for another breakout attempt. The March 17 rally pushed XRP to $1.60, while April’s attempt tapped $1.51, but both moves failed to hold, with the XRP price retracing each time.
So, will this attempt hold or fail like the others? The CLARITY Act markup is scheduled for May 14, and Bitcoin is finally showing strength. Here’s our verdict on XRP holding above the $1.45 resistance this time.
The Fake-Out Every Time XRP Hits $1.50
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On March 17, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity, and the price spiked to $1.60 on a 250% trading volume surge, which was its highest level since mid-February. For a few hours, the rally looked like a breakout, but the Fed killed it the next day.
The central bank held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, raised the 2026 inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%, and projected only one rate cut for the year. Bitcoin also dropped from $74,000 to $70,000 following the news. The XRP price fell 5.3% to $1.46 in a single session, then slipped lower through the week. By the following week, XRP was back at $1.40, down 13% in seven days.
The second test came on April 17 after XRP ETFs had just` posted their biggest week of 2026 at $55.39 million in inflows. The XRP price rallied to $1.51 then pulled back 4% in the same session. By the end of the week, XRP had retraced 54% of the move, settling near $1.44. That rejection was softer than March’s, as XRP didn’t crash back to the $1.28-$1.30 price range like prior failed rallies.
Why This Time Could Be Different
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The catalyst lineup heading into this test is more packed than anything XRP had in March or April. The CLARITY Act, which would make XRP a digital commodity permanently, is scheduled for Senate Banking Committee markup on May 14. That’s four days away, and the bill could unlock additional ETF inflows if it passes.
Moreover, Ripple had its biggest institutional week of the year. On May 6, JPMorgan’s Kinexys, Mastercard, and Ondo Finance completed the first cross-border tokenized U.S. Treasury redemption on XRPL—a five-second settlement that proved XRPL is institutional-ready..
Then again, XRP’s chart setup also looks healthier than April’s. Whale positioning is 73% long, and the cup-and-handle pattern that’s been forming since March is now complete, with a measured target of $1.65-$1.70 if XRP closes above $1.50 on the weekly chart. Bitcoin is above $81,000, up 3.4% for the week—this is a macro tailwind XRP didn’t have in March, when BTC was crashing on the Fed news. Moreso, XRP’s ETF inflows hit $81.59 million in April, recovering from March’s $2 million low.
However, there’s a catch. On May 9, the three biggest US banking trade groups formally rejected the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin compromise embedded in the bill. Tim Scott has held the May 14 date, but the markup faces serious opposition.
Even so, the bigger picture is what matters here. Each catalyst alone wouldn’t move XRP, but the regulatory milestone, institutional pilot, and BTC strength are clustering at the same time—and that’s one of the cleanest setup XRP has had during this consolidation.
Why It Could Still Fake Out Again
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The $1.45-$1.47 price range has rejected XRP four times in the past three months. The 100-day EMA is at $1.49, the weekly Ichimoku cloud’s lower edge runs at $1.45, and both have capped every rally. Until XRP closes above $1.46 on the weekly chart, intraday wicks above $1.50 don’t count. The April 17 rally hit $1.51 intraday but never closed weekly above $1.46, which is why it was a fake-out
The main reason the $1.45 resistance remains strong is because roughly 60% of XRP holders have an average cost basis between $1.44 and $1.46, creating a supply wall right at that level. Every rally meets a wave of break-even sellers.
Moreover, 84% of XRP ETF flows are retail, not institutional. The big allocators that the commodity classification was supposed to bring in are still waiting on the CLARITY Act. The bill’s markup is scheduled, but clearing it isn’t guaranteed. The banking lobby rejection means Republican members face direct pressure to delay or amend the bill.
So, if the committee can’t unify on the Tillis-Alsobrooks compromise, the bill will miss the May 21 Memorial Day recess deadline. This means it would be delayed again, after months of stalled markups.
Will XRP Break Out This Time?
The verdict hinges on the May 14 markup. If the Senate Banking Committee passes the CLARITY Act markup, XRP would have a clear path to close above $1.50 on the weekly chart. The cup-and-handle pattern targets $1.65-$1.70 if XRP holds above $1.50.
However, if amendments strip the bill of substance or the markup fails to advance, XRP could head back to $1.30, possibly dropping to the $1.20 range if the broader market sells off. But if XRP holds above $1.50 and the May 14 markup clears, then it would finally break out of the range it’s been stuck in since late February.
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