Heading into summer 2026, some crypto investors are pondering whether they should chase after the blistering hot returns of new, unproven cryptocurrencies, or put their faith in longtime market stalwarts with proven track records.
I’m in the second camp. I’m investing for the long term, and that’s why I’m picking Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) as the one cryptocurrency to buy if I could pick only one.
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Catalysts for Bitcoin in 2026
Most importantly, Bitcoin has a historical track record that no other cryptocurrency can match. In six of the past 10 years, it has delivered returns of 80% or higher. And it has never had back-to-back losing years. While there are no guarantees, that leads me to think that Bitcoin, down 44% from its all-time high in 2025, may be on the cusp of a major recovery.
In fact, I’ve already predicted that Bitcoin will hit $120,000 this year. That optimism is primarily based on new momentum around the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (aka the Clarity Act) in Congress. In addition, in the face of hostilities in the Middle East, the “digital gold” investment thesis for Bitcoin is making a triumphant return.
And that’s not all. There is a renewed bipartisan push to codify the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into law. If the U.S. government aggressively starts to buy new Bitcoin for this reserve (rather than just passively aggregating Bitcoin from government agencies and departments), then the U.S. could set off a “Bitcoin arms race” with other sovereign nations. A race to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible would almost certainly send its price soaring.
2022 all over again?
To get an idea of where Bitcoin could be headed, just think back to 2022, when nearly the entire crypto market cratered in value. Bitcoin was down 64% for the year and, on Dec. 31, was trading at a super-low discount price of just $16,547. But we all know what happened next. Bitcoin exploded in value, eventually hitting a price of $100,000 in December 2024.
Could the same thing happen again? Maybe. The crypto market setup in 2026 is eerily reminiscent of 2022, when it was also close to impossible to find winners. The big winner in 2022 was GMX (CRYPTO: GMX), a decentralized cryptocurrency exchange that offers massive leverage opportunities for crypto traders. For the year, it was up 111%.
